White Christmas Forecast: Pre-Holiday Thaw Means Dwindling Chance In Midwest, Northeast
- - White Christmas Forecast: Pre-Holiday Thaw Means Dwindling Chance In Midwest, Northeast
Jonathan Erdman December 19, 2025 at 6:30 AM
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A white Christmas is likely only for the usual spots in the upper Midwest and mountain West, upstate New York and northern New England, but a thaw is eating away at snowpack elsewhere in the Midwest and Northeast.
How it's defined: Meteorologists define a "white Christmas" as having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning.
It's snow cover, not falling snow, that counts. So, if there's no snow on the ground in the morning, and an inch of snow falls that afternoon or evening, it doesn't count as a white Christmas.
(MAP: Where Snow Cover Is Right Now)
The latest forecast: The map below shows our latest forecast. Areas in the darkest teal contour have the best chance of at least 1 inch of snow cover Christmas morning. Those in the light teal shading have a chance, but it's not a guarantee.
Those in the gray contour, well, perhaps you can wish for one next year.
This forecast may change in the days leading up to Christmas morning. But, we expect this general shape to the Christmas snow cover.
This year's holiday snow cover could be less than last year, which itself was less expansive than average, as only 26% of the country had snow on the ground, according to NOAA.
(MORE: A Short History Of White Christmas)
Vanishing snow cover east of the Rockies: This outlook sure looks different than the weather we've seen recently.
Parts of the mid-Atlantic and I-95 corridor had their first snow of the season last weekend. And it's been a snowy stretch since the weekend after Thanksgiving in a swath of the Midwest from Iowa and the Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes. Springfield, Illinois (18.9 inches) had its snowiest start to any "winter season" since 1893, with almost as much snowfall as they average an entire season through spring (21.8 inches).
Chicago's O'Hare Airport has picked up almost as much snow as they did all last season, and it's only mid-December.
It's also been one of the top 10 coldest first halves of December on record for several Midwest and East cities, including Green Bay, Wisconsin, Cleveland and Scranton, Pennsylvania, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center.
Some light snow in parts of the Northeast Monday night into Tuesday could freshen up the snowpack in a few areas, but that won't leave much along the I-95 corridor from New York City southward.
Any second weather system after that could either bring more rain than snow, or arrive after Christmas morning in the Northeast.
(MAPS: Daily US Forecast Rain, Snow)
Warmer trend: Then there's the general warming trend in much of the country that will last into Christmas week. That includes the snow-covered, recently cold Midwest.
Yes, there will be some cold fronts in the days ahead. But these cold air intrusions are expected to be increasingly pinned to the northern tier and won't last as long as recent cold snaps in most areas.
That's one reason why we expect the extent of snow cover in the Midwest and Northeast to erode significantly by the holiday, except areas closer to the Canadian border.
(MAPS: Current Temps | 10-Day Forecast Highs/Lows)
6-10 Day Temperature Outlook From NOAA
Where snow may fall through Christmas: Given that warmer pattern, we don't expect much snow in the eastern two-thirds of the nation except near the Canadian border and Great Lakes snowbelts.
But it's not all bad news if you love a white Christmas.
We do expect more mountain snow in the West through Christmas, as the map below shows. That's especially the case in the Cascades, Sierra and northern Rockies where recent record warmth and atmospheric rivers of rain have significantly depleted the snowpack. So, if you're spending Christmas on a ski slope in these areas, you may feel like Santa has delivered.
Outlook Of Snowfall Potential Through Christmas
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.
Source: “AOL Breaking”
